Phillies decline Roy Oswalt contract option

Roy Oswalt 2011 stats: 9-10; ERA 3.69; WHIP 1.338; IP 139

 
It was expected to happen, but now it's official: the Phillies will not pick up Roy Oswalt's option, making him a free agent and deepening what has looked to be a very thin pitching free agent class.

Oswalt was due to make $16 million next season, but will instead get a $2 million buyout. It breaks up a superb Phillies rotation, but Oswalt was the only member of the big four (Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, and Cole Hammels) to post an ERA over 3.00, and rookie Vance Worley (11-3, 3.01 ERA) can easily replace Oswalt in baseball's deepest rotation.

Oswalt is without a doubt still a useful pitcher, when healthy. He posted a 3.69 ERA and 1.338 WHIP in 139 innings last season, putting him in upper ranks of pitchers, but clearly not numbers that require $16 million per year.

Teams should definitely go after him, but the price has to be reasonable.

Oswalt's primary downside is his age and fears that he's starting to break down, but a reputation as "injury prone" would be unfair. He has never gone less than 100 innings in his 11-year career, so even in his worst years he can still make 20 to 25 starts, and with his talent those would be much better than "quality" starts. He's also only 33, so a completely healthy season isn't impossible. Just as recently as 2010 he pitched 211 innings while posting a 2.76 ERA and leading the league with a 1.025 whip.


But - while he isn't injury prone - teams should not expect him to be a 200-inning horse. They should pay him more than a 139-inning 3.69 ERA guy (which would make him just "average"), but ace money is probably not warranted. He has the talent, (3.21 ERA, 1.194 WHIP over his career) but teams should protect themselves in case he can't perform. The talent makes him an incredibly useful pitcher, the injuries are cause for concern.

Teams could try to get him to sign an incentive-laden deal, but they need to be wary because of the free agent class. While Oswalt might not be WORTH ace money, the thin market for starting pitchers might force teams to overpay. CC Sabathia (buyout option) is unlikely to get more than his $28 million outside of New York, so unless teams want to risk a repeat by Freddie Garcia or gamble on a bounceback year for Scott Kazmir or Rich Harden, options are few and far between. CJ Wilson has only figured out how to pitch very recently and a step back isn't unreasonable, and after him no name jumps out.

So teams can go for Mark Buehrle for guaranteed innings at mediocre talent, or can take a shot on Oswalt for guaranteed talent and a giant question mark in innings. The options aren't exciting. For anyone other than Oswalt's agent, that is.

How valuable is Jose Reyes?

Jose Reyes 2011 stats: BA .337, OBP .384, 3B 16, SB 39

There's no doubt Jose Reyes is an immensely talented shortstop.

At an offensively weak position, Reyes has excelled through his entire career. 

This past season, Jose Reyes made himself a serious MVP candidate by leading the league in hitting with a .337 batting average and scoring 101 runs. He's the first Met is history to hold the batting title.

And this wasn't a fluke year, as Reyes has made himself a premiere leadoff man his entire career. He's scored over 100 runs four times. He's led the league in stolen bases three times. He led the league in hits with 204 in 2008, and has had over 190 hits in four seasons.

His lifetime .973 fielding percentage isn't extraordinary, but it's solid.

So what is Jose Reyes' value?

There's no easy answer on this one.

He is an elite talent at an offensively starved position, the Joe Mauer of shortstops. He's a dominant player who mixes contact and speed better than most. And he's just entering his prime now at 28, still young enough that he could have many more years like this one. 

He was paid $11 million this season, and if we're looking at talent and track record alone, he's easily worth closer to $18 million. At first glance it's hard to see him making the $18 mil Ichiro rakes in, considering Ichiro has a much longer track record of speed/contact success, but considering Reyes' position, it seems more than possible. To get the best in the game at his position, you might have to overpay. 

But he's far from perfect, and has some serious negatives teams need to consider. 

The most obvious is his durability. His past three seasons have been plagued with injuries, playing in only 126 games last season and missing all but 36 back in 2009.

That could be chalked up to him being a Met. The Mets - for whatever reason - have had trouble keeping their players healthy for years. But teams might be wary of giving $18 million and guaranteeing 6 or 7 years to a player who hasn't stayed healthy for three straight seasons. If he breaks down and can't replicate his speed, teams could be stuck with an average player at $18 million for five years.

Another weakness is his lack of plate discipline. Last season was the only time he had more walks than strikeouts, and his career .341 OBP is a cause for concern. A lead off man needs to get on base. So if he loses some speed and can't get as many hits, Reyes can't make up for it with walks. If he doesn't hit, he doesn't get on base. It is said on-base skills don't wear down over time. The same is not true for speed.

So what should he be worth? Prudent teams will gamble the money, but not the years. Reyes first broke down at the age of 26. He has not been able to stay healthy. Reyes will certainly balk at an offer of less than four or five years, no matter how much a team throws at him, not even if it's as ridiculous as $40 million for one year. 

But he might be willing to take 4 years, $100 million instead of 6, $90 million. Teams should be willing to overpay a little if it means less guaranteed years. They can keep him happy with multi-year options and incentive-laden years further down the road.