Phillies decline Roy Oswalt contract option

Roy Oswalt 2011 stats: 9-10; ERA 3.69; WHIP 1.338; IP 139

 
It was expected to happen, but now it's official: the Phillies will not pick up Roy Oswalt's option, making him a free agent and deepening what has looked to be a very thin pitching free agent class.

Oswalt was due to make $16 million next season, but will instead get a $2 million buyout. It breaks up a superb Phillies rotation, but Oswalt was the only member of the big four (Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, and Cole Hammels) to post an ERA over 3.00, and rookie Vance Worley (11-3, 3.01 ERA) can easily replace Oswalt in baseball's deepest rotation.

Oswalt is without a doubt still a useful pitcher, when healthy. He posted a 3.69 ERA and 1.338 WHIP in 139 innings last season, putting him in upper ranks of pitchers, but clearly not numbers that require $16 million per year.

Teams should definitely go after him, but the price has to be reasonable.

Oswalt's primary downside is his age and fears that he's starting to break down, but a reputation as "injury prone" would be unfair. He has never gone less than 100 innings in his 11-year career, so even in his worst years he can still make 20 to 25 starts, and with his talent those would be much better than "quality" starts. He's also only 33, so a completely healthy season isn't impossible. Just as recently as 2010 he pitched 211 innings while posting a 2.76 ERA and leading the league with a 1.025 whip.


But - while he isn't injury prone - teams should not expect him to be a 200-inning horse. They should pay him more than a 139-inning 3.69 ERA guy (which would make him just "average"), but ace money is probably not warranted. He has the talent, (3.21 ERA, 1.194 WHIP over his career) but teams should protect themselves in case he can't perform. The talent makes him an incredibly useful pitcher, the injuries are cause for concern.

Teams could try to get him to sign an incentive-laden deal, but they need to be wary because of the free agent class. While Oswalt might not be WORTH ace money, the thin market for starting pitchers might force teams to overpay. CC Sabathia (buyout option) is unlikely to get more than his $28 million outside of New York, so unless teams want to risk a repeat by Freddie Garcia or gamble on a bounceback year for Scott Kazmir or Rich Harden, options are few and far between. CJ Wilson has only figured out how to pitch very recently and a step back isn't unreasonable, and after him no name jumps out.

So teams can go for Mark Buehrle for guaranteed innings at mediocre talent, or can take a shot on Oswalt for guaranteed talent and a giant question mark in innings. The options aren't exciting. For anyone other than Oswalt's agent, that is.

How valuable is Jose Reyes?

Jose Reyes 2011 stats: BA .337, OBP .384, 3B 16, SB 39

There's no doubt Jose Reyes is an immensely talented shortstop.

At an offensively weak position, Reyes has excelled through his entire career. 

This past season, Jose Reyes made himself a serious MVP candidate by leading the league in hitting with a .337 batting average and scoring 101 runs. He's the first Met is history to hold the batting title.

And this wasn't a fluke year, as Reyes has made himself a premiere leadoff man his entire career. He's scored over 100 runs four times. He's led the league in stolen bases three times. He led the league in hits with 204 in 2008, and has had over 190 hits in four seasons.

His lifetime .973 fielding percentage isn't extraordinary, but it's solid.

So what is Jose Reyes' value?

There's no easy answer on this one.

He is an elite talent at an offensively starved position, the Joe Mauer of shortstops. He's a dominant player who mixes contact and speed better than most. And he's just entering his prime now at 28, still young enough that he could have many more years like this one. 

He was paid $11 million this season, and if we're looking at talent and track record alone, he's easily worth closer to $18 million. At first glance it's hard to see him making the $18 mil Ichiro rakes in, considering Ichiro has a much longer track record of speed/contact success, but considering Reyes' position, it seems more than possible. To get the best in the game at his position, you might have to overpay. 

But he's far from perfect, and has some serious negatives teams need to consider. 

The most obvious is his durability. His past three seasons have been plagued with injuries, playing in only 126 games last season and missing all but 36 back in 2009.

That could be chalked up to him being a Met. The Mets - for whatever reason - have had trouble keeping their players healthy for years. But teams might be wary of giving $18 million and guaranteeing 6 or 7 years to a player who hasn't stayed healthy for three straight seasons. If he breaks down and can't replicate his speed, teams could be stuck with an average player at $18 million for five years.

Another weakness is his lack of plate discipline. Last season was the only time he had more walks than strikeouts, and his career .341 OBP is a cause for concern. A lead off man needs to get on base. So if he loses some speed and can't get as many hits, Reyes can't make up for it with walks. If he doesn't hit, he doesn't get on base. It is said on-base skills don't wear down over time. The same is not true for speed.

So what should he be worth? Prudent teams will gamble the money, but not the years. Reyes first broke down at the age of 26. He has not been able to stay healthy. Reyes will certainly balk at an offer of less than four or five years, no matter how much a team throws at him, not even if it's as ridiculous as $40 million for one year. 

But he might be willing to take 4 years, $100 million instead of 6, $90 million. Teams should be willing to overpay a little if it means less guaranteed years. They can keep him happy with multi-year options and incentive-laden years further down the road.    

Should the St. Louis Cardinals keep Lance Berkman?

Padres interested in John Lackey

Padres get: pitcher with a 3.81 ERA in AL West, for under $1 million. 

Sox get: no more John Lackey.

The San Diego Tribune has reported that the Padres are interested in John Lackey, providing the Red Sox pick up most of his $45 million contract.

For the Sox, that's an obvious move to make. Lackey had a 6.41 ERA last season, which was literally - as in, without any exaggeration - the single worst ERA a Sox pitcher has had in over 100 years. Because he's getting paid so much, ownership won't let him sit or head back to the minors. Paying him $40 million to not play might seem like a waste, but you're getting the worst pitcher in Sox history out of the rotation for good.

It would also make the Sox look a lot better to their fans. Having a spoiled pitcher who talks other pitchers into drinking and eating unhealthily, starts cliques, and complains about his teammates and shows them up is bad enough. Paying him $40 million to do it makes it look worse. Having him divorce his wife while she's dealing with breast cancer? It's safe to say he's not popular with the fans.

Showing the fans that you're willing to swallow your pride and eat a huge contract to jettison a spoiled brat is a huge step toward regaining their trust. You recognize your mistake and are willing to pay big bucks to make the fans happy.

San Diego could be a big-time winner here too.

Lackey had a 3.81 ERA for the Angels, a more than respectable mark for a pitcher who also averaged around 200 innings.

And Bud Black, the pitching coach who helped him find 8 years of success? He's now the Padres manager.

Moving to warmer climes of the west coast should help him too. Lackey has always pitched far better out west.


Moving from one of the biggest baseball cities in the country to one of the smallest markets should do wonders for him too. No one will analyze him. No one will ask questions about his divorce. Without pressure and scrutiny, Lackey might find himself again.


Moving from a hitter-friendly park like Fenway to the cavern of Petco? Moving from the heaviest hitting division in baseball (A-rod, Teixeira, Cano, Granderson, Reynolds, Longoria) to one of the lightest (ummmm.... Kemp?)? His ERA in San Diego could easily return to the mid 3's.

The Sox could finally be rid of a clubhouse cancer and get some fan respect back. The Padres could have a pitcher with a 3.81 west coast ERA for under $1 million a year. Win win.

Why Carlos Pena should go to the Washington Nationals

Legitimate power and proven leadership at a reasonable price

 Carlos Pena 2011 stats: BA .225; OBP .357; HR 28; RBI 80 Cost: $10 mil.

Why Carlos Pena should go to the Washington Nationals: 

1. Chance to be a star again. The Nationals will be in the national spotlight next season. Stephen Strasburg is already a national hero, and Bryce Harper has a good chance to eclipse his stardom. Being the leading RBI man and team veteran on a rising underdog team everyone is watching could do wonders for his own personal fandom.

2. Increased stats. On the Cubs, Pena knocked in 80 runs and had 28 HR hitting in front of Aramis Ramirez, who only had 26 HR himself and slugged .510. On the Nationals, he could have the protection of Michael Morse, who had 31 HR and slugged .550. Furthermore, Ramirez could be a free agent at the end of the season, leaving Pena without anyone to provide him lineup protection.

The Nationals also could provide Pena with more protection from the front side. Number two hitter Jayson Werth led the majors with 4.5 pitches per plate appearance in 2009, and Zimmerman saw 4.37 last season. After tiring himself out in back-to-back at bats against Werth and Zimmerman, and fearful of Morse's power, Pena has an increased chance of seeing some great pitches.

Lastly, if Werth could bounce back and approach his .388 OBP from 2010 and Zimmerman can keep up the .370 OBP he's averaged over the past three seasons, Pena's RBI oportunities would increase dramatically with a move to the Nationals.

Why the Washington Nationals should sign Carlos Pena:

1. Added thump. Werth and Zimmerman are both OBP machines, but have very little power behind them to knock them home. Pena has a very low average and strikes out a ton, but his proven RBI abilities are a necessity for a team that wants to compete. No one on the Nationals had 100 RBI last season, Pena has hit 100 RBI three times. He also too 101 walks last season, so he isn't a Mark Reynolds-type who stops the offense dead if he doesn't hit a home run. He can keep the line moving.

2. Jayson Werth. In the last three seasons that he hit in a powerful Phillies lineup, Werth averaged 29 HR per year and a .279 BA. Last season - with very little protection - he hit .232 with 20 HR. If the Nationals were to sign Pena, not only would his stats help the team, he would provide relatively cheap protection for Werth. Werth is due to make $112 million over the next six seasons, so the Nationals CANNOT afford for him to keep playing at this level. Pena averaged 34.4 HR over the past five seasons, so his protection in the lineup could spell the return of a dominant Jayson Werth.


3. Bryce Harper. Harper is a young, cocky slugger. Pena is a veteran who has seen both the joy of MVP consideration and the pain of getting released from team after team because he didn't live up to expectations. Pena could be a very important mentor to the young Harper, who can teach him how to deal with the pressures of being a blue chip prospect.

4. Show the fans you're dedicated. Signing Werth was a big step in showing Washington fans the owernship is dedicated to fielding a winning team, no matter the cost. Bringing in a slugger of this caliber will remind them this is a team on the rise, and the team's first winning season could be in the near future. And the Nats wouldn't have to break the bank to get him either.

If the Nationals can slip in and grab Pena for under $10 million, he would provide the thump in the heart of their order that could mean a winning season. A lineup featuring Ian Desmond, Werth, Zimmerman, Pena, Morse, and Harper 1 - 6 would be the perfect mix of high OBP plus power. Throw in the first full season of Stephen Strasburg and Jordan Zimmermann pitching side by side, and you have a recipe for success. Finally.

Why Tim Wakefield should reunite with the Pirates

Tim Wakefield's Red Sox career should be over.

The beloved pitcher had a 5.12 ERA this season, and his chase for his 200th win was a major distraction to the club. If he returns to the Sox, it will be to chase more milestones, not to help the team.

At 45 years old, his "fastball" is into the mid-60s, and after 17 years in the league, AL hitters have clearly learned to hit his knuckleball.

So he's distracting the Sox and can't pitch well in the AL. Should he retire?

Wakefield's knuckleball is just as good today as it was 19 years ago, and he's still healthy enough to play. He's also an immensely likable pitcher, a veteran with leadership (and World Series) experience, and has many milestones ahead of him.

He should return home to the Pirates.

Pitchers who go from the AL to the NL generally have better success, due mostly to the lack of the DH in the league. But Wakefield will have an even greater chance at success. It's been 17 years since the NL has seen a knuckleball as good as Wakefield's (no disrespect to R.A. Dickey). The last time Wake let that knuckleball dance for the unsuspecting NL, his ERA ended up at 2.15. So Wakefield could easily confound hitters in the NL for a few more years at least. The NL in general is the only place his career could continue.

The NL Central is also his best bet. A Central division suddenly lacking Prince Fielder (certainly) and Pujols (probably) will be one of the lightest hitting divisions in baseball.

And the Pirates are definitely his best bet in the Central. They need pitching help (11th out of 16 in ERA this season). They need veterans (not a single one of their starters is over 30). And they need inexpensive players (Wakefield cost $1.5 mil).

But most importantly, they need a culture change. After 19 straight losing seasons, the Pirates are a franchise without hope. What better way to bring in some hope than to bring back the only active player who was part of a Pirates winning season?

The fans haven't had a true franchise player in years. What better way to rejuvenate the fans than to bring back a successful major leaguer who started in Pittsburgh? To bring the active wins leader back to the yellow and black?

A return home after 18 years is just what Wakefield and the Pirates need to keep from fading away.