Phillies decline Roy Oswalt contract option

Roy Oswalt 2011 stats: 9-10; ERA 3.69; WHIP 1.338; IP 139

 
It was expected to happen, but now it's official: the Phillies will not pick up Roy Oswalt's option, making him a free agent and deepening what has looked to be a very thin pitching free agent class.

Oswalt was due to make $16 million next season, but will instead get a $2 million buyout. It breaks up a superb Phillies rotation, but Oswalt was the only member of the big four (Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, and Cole Hammels) to post an ERA over 3.00, and rookie Vance Worley (11-3, 3.01 ERA) can easily replace Oswalt in baseball's deepest rotation.

Oswalt is without a doubt still a useful pitcher, when healthy. He posted a 3.69 ERA and 1.338 WHIP in 139 innings last season, putting him in upper ranks of pitchers, but clearly not numbers that require $16 million per year.

Teams should definitely go after him, but the price has to be reasonable.

Oswalt's primary downside is his age and fears that he's starting to break down, but a reputation as "injury prone" would be unfair. He has never gone less than 100 innings in his 11-year career, so even in his worst years he can still make 20 to 25 starts, and with his talent those would be much better than "quality" starts. He's also only 33, so a completely healthy season isn't impossible. Just as recently as 2010 he pitched 211 innings while posting a 2.76 ERA and leading the league with a 1.025 whip.


But - while he isn't injury prone - teams should not expect him to be a 200-inning horse. They should pay him more than a 139-inning 3.69 ERA guy (which would make him just "average"), but ace money is probably not warranted. He has the talent, (3.21 ERA, 1.194 WHIP over his career) but teams should protect themselves in case he can't perform. The talent makes him an incredibly useful pitcher, the injuries are cause for concern.

Teams could try to get him to sign an incentive-laden deal, but they need to be wary because of the free agent class. While Oswalt might not be WORTH ace money, the thin market for starting pitchers might force teams to overpay. CC Sabathia (buyout option) is unlikely to get more than his $28 million outside of New York, so unless teams want to risk a repeat by Freddie Garcia or gamble on a bounceback year for Scott Kazmir or Rich Harden, options are few and far between. CJ Wilson has only figured out how to pitch very recently and a step back isn't unreasonable, and after him no name jumps out.

So teams can go for Mark Buehrle for guaranteed innings at mediocre talent, or can take a shot on Oswalt for guaranteed talent and a giant question mark in innings. The options aren't exciting. For anyone other than Oswalt's agent, that is.